The easy part about forecasting online giving so far in the future is that no one will remember this article in five years. I know, Lincoln said that at Gettysburg, but he was wrong. As consultants, we're looking about 12 months into the future. We're encouraging our clients to plan seriously for the next six. Thinking five to ten times that far into the future is a job for Issac Assimov.

Fortunately, we have five years of online giving to look back upon. Maybe we can build a curve to use in projections.

Five years ago retailers, who had adopted online technology far faster and more furiously than nonprofits, were producing less than one percent of their sales online. Now they're getting almost 2.5% of their sales online. Nonprofits have followed about that curve, but the future is brighter for them online. I'll guess that 25% of individual's gifts to charities will come online. Enough to be taken seriously, but it won't completely replace face-to-face giving or even direct mail and telephone. Online banking has grown more dramatically in the past five years, and in 2010, most people will use it. That will increase the number of donors who give via electronic check.

The wild speculation involves who will be giving online, how and why. By the time we get good at email marketing, it will cease to be the major channel for communicating with donors and prospects. Blogs and other RSS delivery of information will be a primary way for donors to receive news about the issues that matter to them. Instant messaging is an "old" technology that continues to be extremely popular. Text messaging may finally become mainstream, but right now cellular companies in the US are holding it back with high rates. In Europe, it's used much more frequently.

With at least some savvy nonprofits reaching out through these media, they will expand their audience beyond the current direct mail and spot-TV prospect pool. Younger people will increasing get involved in activism and philanthropy, further fueling a rush toward online fundraising. These younger, less patient donors will give in smaller amounts, but more often, and if you can keep their attention long enough and serve them consistently, you can have a donor for 60 years.

In general, donor loyalty will be strained by more choices (the Balkanization of nonprofits is astounding), by the decreasing attention span of younger donors, and the passing of the largest part of the WWII generation (the youngest GI's at the end of WWII will be 85 in 2010). Nonprofits will have to be much more nimble than they are now. Smart nonprofits will increasingly "Balkanize" themselves, offering multiple message streams the way Proctor and Gamble makes toothpastes for every demographic group. They'll find a project worth supporting, a market that's interested, and build a campaign around it. They'll continue, expand, or terminate the campaign when it has run its course, the same way the big companies treat their brands. The difference is that online communication will allow much smaller, shorter-lived campaigns than is profitable for the behemoth consumer product companies who rely on mass merchandising.

Now, you've wasted valuable time reading my wild speculation. Go out and try something new today to raise some new money tomorrow!

July 2005