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NPA's Predictions for Internet Fundraising in 2004
As the pundits call for a stronger stock market or less rain in 2004, we thought we'd offer some useful predictions about the Internet and nonprofits' ability to use it. 1) There will be more spam, not less, in 2004. New federal regulations and the arrest of a major spammer in Virginia will do little to stem the tide. Building a case is too difficult and the lure of easy money is too great. 2) There will be more regulation of the Internet in 2004, not less. The Can-Spam bill was approved without dissent in the House and Senate. Even conservative and libertarian web polls showed overwhelming support for anti-spam laws. The Congress will site the increase in spam (see projection #1) not as a reason to abandon spam regulation, but as a reason to give the public more of what it wants. 3) Elections will be much more Internet-driven. The Dean campaign has made much of its Internet focus. The Bush campaign has quietly compiled 10 times as many e-mail addresses! The web has gone from the tool of the fringe candidate in 2000 to the tool of every candidate in 2004. This will be good for fundraising. Politically active people are also donors, and people who give to candidates online are going to be more likely to give to charities online. 4) More nonprofits will do more acquisition online. As direct mail matures as a medium, more nonprofits will turn to the Internet as a source of generating new supporters. In the past, many thought that the Internet was good for cultivation, but not acquisition. This is changing. 5) There is still a shortage of good e-mail lists for 'chaperoned' e-mail appeals as an acquisition tool. Postal list brokers have, for the most part, ignored this market. For this reason, nonprofits will turn to keyword buys and search engine optimization as short-term acquisition techniques. 6) State regulators will largely ignore online fundraising as they act as watchdogs over our industry. They will be too busy pursuing other alleged misconduct by nonprofits (failure to register fundraising contracts, misallocation of funds) to focus in on nonprofits' use of the Internet. 7) Nonprofits who actually ask for money online will get lots more of it. Too many nonprofits are afraid to make hard asks for money in an e-mail. Their appeals look like fancy publications. More will send text e-mails announcing an urgent need, and they'll get money. 8) Technology available to nonprofits will largely outstrip the ability of people at nonprofits to use that technology to its full potential. I recently sat through a demonstration of Kintera's technology. I doubt most of their clients are effectively using more than 25% of the tools available. 9) Radical and fringe groups will make more use of the Internet, and they will push the limits of what will be done online. These groups are more willing to take risks, and frequently don't have the funds for traditional fundraising and advocacy, so they will take their cases online. Their progress should be studied and then implemented by all nonprofits. 10) The web will, for many nonprofits, cease to be a separate channel of fundraising, and instead, will be a part of the concerns of all development officers, including major gifts, capital campaigns, and planned giving. The web will be integrated into overall development campaigns, including direct mail and special events. In short, it will 'go mainstream.' OK, that last prediction is more a 'wish' than a 'forecast' but it is the ultimate future of the Internet. NPA wishes you a fruitful and peaceful 2004. December 2003 | |
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